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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."